Will Nations Print Money to Buy Bitcoin?

The global monetary landscape is beginning to resemble a desperate debt servicing operation. The biggest nations, such as United States, are printing money for many reasons, but one of the main ones are to devalue their debt, while exporting part of the inflationary impact to smaller countries who are not only pricing global trade in dollars, but also hold US currency as their reserve. However, this status quo is not sustainable, especially for those countries that are getting the short end of the stick. Gold has been an answer up until now, but what about Bitcoin?

Let's explore how likely it is that countries will exploit their money printers to get an early upper-hand at this fixed-supply, mathematically secured hardest form of money.

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The Four Types of Nations in Today’s Monetary System

As outlined by Andrew Barisser, the world’s nations can be divided into four monetary categories:

1. Monetary Hegemons: Nations like the United States or Eurozone that dominate global finance, extracting immense value through seigniorage - the profits from printing money held by foreigners.

2. Minor Players: Countries with sovereign currencies that extract seigniorage only from their domestic populations but lack international monetary influence. Most major countries not included in above category could be considered "Minor Players".

3. Vassals: Nations dependent on hegemonic currencies like the USD or EUR, forced to bear the costs of inflation without enjoying the benefits of monetary independence.

4. Excluded Nations: Countries shut out of global financial systems, like Iran and North Korea, which seek alternatives to bypass sanctions and access international trade.

Bitcoin disrupts this hierarchy by offering a neutral alternative, one that cannot be exploited or weaponized by big boys. Ostracized nations have nothing to lose, they could adopt Bitcoin now and reap "early bird's" benefits, but even more interestingly so - big boys need to play their cards smart too, as retaining power is in their best interest, so they can't be the last ones standing with their abandoned system.

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Why Nations Might Print Money to Buy Bitcoin

Printing money to acquire Bitcoin may sound radical, but it makes total sense if you assume that the ultimate Bitcoin adoption as the hardest asset is inevitable - and that's exactly what most countries are silently weighing up. Printing a depreciating but unlimited currency to acquire something that has mathematically fixed supply and already existing value transfer network is essentially a trade capturing free value.

Of course, it's only possible to buy Bitcoin in currencies that have sell-side liquidity. So, for most countries they will need to sell their other assets, to buy Bitcoin rather than print their currency. However, let's explore both selling and printing options.

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Excluded Nations: Bitcoin as a Lifeline

It's safe to say that international financial systems will continue to be weaponised as long as that yields results. So far, most countries afflicted by such measures have been turning to gold, at least publicly. Bitcoin is the next level gold replacement, eliminating the logistical nightmares and ensuring to be an asset with a guaranteed fixed supply. While such countries won't really be able to "print their way" into Bitcoin, they can very much so decide to sell their other assets.

Vassals: Breaking Free from the Hegemon

For vassal states, Bitcoin represents a path to independence. These nations currently pay the price of inflation imposed by hegemonic currencies like the U.S. dollar without receiving corresponding benefits.

El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin alongside the dollar is a prime example of this shift. While the country still uses the dollar as legal tender, Bitcoin allows it to store value in an asset immune to U.S. monetary policy. The more US abuses its currency, the more inclined other countries will be to transition.

However, the transition is not without risk, and it's almost guaranteed that United States will do everything they can to subdue any attempts to break away from the dollar "addiction".

Minor Players: Straddling the Line

Minor players face a unique dilemma. While they enjoy some domestic seigniorage, their currencies are less desirable than those of the hegemons - or Bitcoin. As citizens increasingly adopt Bitcoin as a savings technology, such countries risk losing control over their monetary systems.

For such countries, adopting Bitcoin early could be a chance to re-establish themselves as power players in the new era. Not only can they sell their dollar reserves to weaken the existing "king", but also print their own currency to extract any "free" value they can by buying Bitcoin.

The Hegemons’ Dilemma

Monetary hegemons like the U.S. have the most to lose from Bitcoin’s rise, but they also have the best shot at acquiring the most of it. The dollar’s reserve currency status allows the U.S. to export inflation and fund deficits while maintaining global influence. If nations begin shifting to Bitcoin, this privilege erodes, forcing the U.S. to bear the full cost of its monetary policies domestically.

Trump has already hinted at Bitcoin multiple times, and it seems that United States will be much more pro-Bitcoin over next years. While adopting Bitcoin undermines dollar, failing to act now could leave them vulnerable in the long term. At the end of the day, United States have a unique chance to capture the biggest share of Bitcoin pie at little to no cost, by printing dollars and buying Bitcoin, as long as there is liquidity for that.

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A Sudden Shift: The Accumulation Race

Bitcoin’s fixed supply creates a unique dynamic. Once nations realise its strategic importance, a race to accumulate will likely ensue. Early adopters like El Salvador are setting the stage, but as Bitcoin’s adoption accelerates, the competition could become exponential. We may even see Bitcoin cycles driven entirely by nation-state buying.

Bitcoin is not just a hedge against inflation or a speculative asset—it is becoming a tool of geopolitical strategy. The nations that act decisively now will position themselves for a future defined by hard, apolitical money. Those that cling to the old system may find themselves left behind, as Bitcoin reshapes the global order.

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